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If the latter’s true, it’s not a smart donation if you multiply the odds by 10^52, you’ve saved an expected 0.0000000000001 lives, which is pretty miserable. Maybe giving $1,000 to the Machine Intelligence Research Institute will reduce the probability of AI killing us all by 0.00000000000000001. But those probability values are literally just made up.

These arguments give a false sense of statistical precision by slapping probability values on beliefs. This is what X-risk obsessives mean when they claim ending world poverty would be a “rounding error.” That argues, in the judgment of Bostrom and others, for prioritizing efforts to prevent human extinction above other endeavors. Put another way: The number of future humans who will never exist if humans go extinct is so great that reducing the risk of extinction by 0.00000000000000001 percent can be expected to save 100 billion more lives than, say, preventing the genocide of 1 billion people. Nick Bostrom - the Oxford philosopher who popularized the concept of existential risk - estimates that about 10^54 human life-years (or 10^52 lives of 100 years each) could be in our future if we both master travel between solar systems and figure out how to emulate human brains in computers.Įven if we give this 10^54 estimate “a mere 1% chance of being correct,” Bostrom writes, “we find that the expected value of reducing existential risk by a mere one billionth of one billionth of one percentage point is worth a hundred billion times as much as a billion human lives.” He writes – and I am editing liberally to keep it short, so be sure to read the whole thing: But for now I want to discuss a specific argument of Matthews’.

Perhaps I will go into it at more length later.

There is much to challenge in it, and some has already been challenged by people like Ryan Carey. Dylan Matthews writes a critique of effective altruism.

How to output dblue glitch into skype to troll